Stanley Cup final prediction
(with a bit of a follow-up to my Conference final predictions thrown in)
by Bo Siemsen


So we're back to the Stanley Cup finals with 2 first-timer teams and GM's even. Mikael Svensson and his Sharks have been among the top-2 or top-3 candidates for the WCFHL Stanley Cup for the past 4 seasons or so ... but has fallen short every time. The main reasons I suspect has been questionable (or worn down) goaltending and/or their lack of experience/leadership. In my opinion the Sharks haven't really solved these issues ... but they have been able to fully compensate for that by scoring goals like crazy in these playoffs. That gets them through the occassional *blip* from Kolzig.

At the beginning of the season the Sabres looked like a team that might make the playoffs. They did - in style ... finishing 2nd in the Conference Standings. In the playoffs series for series it has been close calls - they never really looked like a team ready for the Stanley Cup Finals. But they just refused to ose out on this Dominic Haseks' final shot at a WCFHL Stanley Cup. Honestly the Sabres still dont look like a 'true' Stanley Cup Contender, but they are just 4 wins away from the cup. You have to respect that. Eventhough it still sucks that they beat me ...

After the Conference Finals I have managed to predict 10-of-14 series. The two Stanley Cup finalists have both managed to beat the prediction odds. The Sabres when they defeated the Senators and the Canadiens ... and the Sharks when they overcame the St.Louis Blues.

San Jose Sharks vs. Buffalo Sabres

3RD ROUND :
(Sabres)
The Buffalo Sabres eliminated the New York Rangers in a 7-game series where veteran winger Dave Andreychuk clinched the series in overtime. The Sabres did have an advantage in shots through the series and Pavel Bure was the leading scorer with 3 goals and 4 assists while Dave Andreychuk managed 4 goals and 2 assists.

Goaltending was a key factor in the series with Hasek Dominating his 'pupil' Roman Cechmanek. Hasek finished the series with a .921 savepercentage while Cechmanek hardly impressed anyone with his .877 savepercentage. In fact the Sabres almost blew the series when Cechmanek was injured in game 5 - backup Dan Blackburn matched Hasek save-for-save ... well - almost.

I had predicted the Sabres to win the series in 6 ... the Rangers pushed it to 7 - but I still got the winner right. Damnit. I was expecting the Rangers' to struggle scoring enough on Hasek - and they did.


(Sharks)
Like the Sabres the Sharks needed 7 games to get to the Stanley Cup Final. For the 2nd season in a row the St.Louis Blues was on the losing end of a Conference final game 7 loss. ouch ouch double ouch. Game 7 was vintage San Jose ... score the goals and make sure you score enough of them ... 1-0 ... 2-0 ... 3-0 .... quick dominance from the hometeam put them in the driving seat for the finals. But the resilient Blues refused to give in and they came back to make it a 1-goal game - but the 3-goal cushion was too much to overcome.

Youngsters Martin Havlat (5 goals) Simon Gagne (7 points) and Todd Bertuzzi (6 points) lead the scoring for Sharks while Olaf Kolzig was below-average allowing 22 goals on 159 shots for a savepercentage of .862.

I had predicted the St.Louis Blues to win in 6 games. I was wrong ... this year the power of the Blues could not overcome the skill of the Sharks.


BREAKDOWN
Even strength - the Buffalo Sabres are overmatched going into the Stanley Cup Finals. Player for player the San Jose Sharks is better. Good thing for the Sabres that hockey is a team game. Apart from Bure, Hasek and maybe Kovalchuk no player from Buffalo could crack the Sharks' lineup. That says a lot. Huge advantage Sharks.

On Special Teams - the Buffalo Sabres has been very strong at special teams during these playoffs. They have a very respectable powerplay percentage of 17.0 while their penaltykilling unit is succesful in 92% of the time. Comparably the Sharks have roughly the same amount of penalty minutes ... but they are not quite as effective on the powerplay with 15.6% and quite a bit worse on the penaltykill with 84.4%. Advantage Sabres.

Goaltending - Olaf Kolzig has gotten gradually worse as the playoffs went on ... and the big goalie definitely have to do better than the .862 savepercentage he had in the Conference finals against the Blues. The San Jose Sharks has identified the problem as "fatigue". In his place Miika Kiprusoff will start in game 1. At the other end of the ice Dominic Hasek or Felix Potvin will do the job for the Sabres ... a better and fresher duo. Should be interesting to see how the two GM's handle the goaltending situation. Advantage Sabres.


KEY TO THE SERIES
Goaltending. Dominic Hasek HAS to be at his best if the Buffalo Sabres are going to have any sort of chance in this series. But - if they get the goaltending matchup they want - if they get top efforts from Hasek and/or Potvin against the Sharks. Kolzig has struggled ... he needs to be at least average so that the forwards has a chance to outscore the Sabres ... this is the key - goaltending.


PREDICTION
Common sense dictates that the Sharks will destroy the Sabres. But the more I've looked at the goaltending in this series the more I get a sneaking suspicion that this is NOT going to be so one-sided as it appears. If the Sabres quickly can take advantage of a 2nd rate backup in Kiprusoff ... or the 2nd rate play of Kolzig they seriously stand a chance to upset the Sharks. However - I am still going to go with common sense ... Sharks in 5