Playoff Race Heats Up in Both Conferences

With just 23 days remaining until the end of the season, the playoff race in both the Eastern and Western Conferences has gotten extremely competitive, with three teams battling for the final spot in the East and six teams fighting for the last two spots in the West. In the last three weeks of the season we have a couple of great races on our hands.  Intensifying the action is the fact that some teams financial well being rests on their playoff aspirations and if they don’t make it, they face an off-season in which they will be forced to make some tough decisions.  So without further ado, we’ll now analyze the races in each conference and break down the remaining teams’ chances.  One note before we start, don’t be offended if your team is listed as an “Easy” opponent.  I couldn’t think of a better word (except maybe “weak” but I figured that was just as bad) for the lower-down teams in the league.

EAST

Now that the Leafs have gotten hot and gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, they look to have locked up at least the 7^th spot in the East, leading the next closest team by 7 points with 15 games to play. The Thrashers recent 0-8-2 skid has probably put them out of contention.  Still fighting it out for the 8^th spot are New Jersey, Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh

New Jersey Devils

Record: 27-32-9-2

Points: 65

Last 10 Games: 5-2-3

Games Remaining: 14

Tough Games: 10 (@Rangers, @Rangers, Leafs, @Stars, Sabres, @Capitals, @Panthers, @Stars, Senators, Wild)

Easy Games: 3 (Jackets, Flyers, Thrashers)  

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 1 (Penguins)

The Devils have surprised many people by storming back from near the bottom of the conference to, at least for now, grab the 8^th playoff spot.  They face a very tough schedule through their last 14 games with 10 of them against playoff-bound teams, including two against the Rangers, the best team in the league, and two against the Stars, the current leader in the West.  The Devils are probably going to have to win at least 5 of these games and beat the teams they should beat (Columbus, Atlanta and Philadelphia), as well as winning an important contest against the Penguins.  If they can win at least 9 of their next 14 games, that will give them a very good chance to make the playoffs, but with such a tough schedule, it’s not a given.  It wouldn’t be a bad idea for this team to make another deal or two to solidify their defense before the deadline. 11 wins would probably guarantee them a spot, but that is a lot to ask with the schedule they have.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Record: 26-32-9-2

Points: 63

Last 10 Games: 1-8-1

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 6 (@Blackhawks, Capitals, @Wings, @Blues, @Stars, Panthers)

Easy Games: 5 (Hurricanes, Hurricanes, Bruins, @Canadiens, Hurricanes)  

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 4 (@Oilers, Canucks, @Coyotes, @Coyotes)

The Bolts have to do something to stop their free-fall through the Eastern Conference standings.  In a stroke of luck, they face three of the weakest teams in the East (Hurricanes, Bruins and Canadiens) a total of 5 times and wins in each of those 5 games would give the Lightning a great boost towards the playoffs.  9 of their final 16 games are against Western Conference opponents and Tampa Bay has a respectable 12-12-4 record against the West.  If they can win their 5 “Easy” games, take 3 or 4 of their 7 “Tough” games and win 2 or 3 of the 4 against other playoff racers, this would give the Lightning a great shot at catching the Devils.  Yes, they probably have to win 10 or 11 of 15 games to guarantee a spot, but with the Devils facing a very tough schedule it is possible.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Record: 27-32-8-1

Points: 63

Last 10 Games: 5-3-2

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 7 (@Wings, Sharks, Avalanche, @Senators, Sharks, @Rangers, @Rangers)

Easy Games: 5 (@Flames, Ducks, @Flyers, Ducks, @Flyers)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 3 (@Devils, Kings, Kings)

So comes the time for the Penguins to make their annual playoff push.  They’ve been successful in the past and they have the experience to do it again.  Though they have to face the best team in the East, the Rangers, as well as two of the West’s best teams, the Sharks (twice) and the Avalanche, they also have 6 games against teams at or near the bottom of their conferences (Flyers and Ducks twice, and the Flames).  They can probably stand to lose 4 of their tough games, as long as they can sweep the easy ones and win two of three against the Kings (twice) and Devils.  They lost a much-needed point in today’s 2-2 tie with Philadelphia though, a game they needed to win.  They are just 2 points behind the Devils and tied with the Lightning, and with the easiest schedule of the three, the Pens can probably make the playoffs with 10 wins in their next 15, especially if the Devils and Lightning can’t win at least 9 games each.

WEST

Los Angeles Kings

Record: 30-29-8-1

Points: 69

Last 10 Games: 3-4-3

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 4 (@Avalanche, Islanders, @Sabers, Islanders)

Easy Games: 6 (Ducks, Ducks, @Ducks, Flames, Ducks, Bruins)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 5 (@Wild, @Penguins, Coyotes, @Penguins, Oilers)

The Kings currently hold the 7^th spot in the West and though their current streak of 3 ties has gotten them 3 points, they need to start winning games if they want to lock up the 7^th spot.  The acquisition of Sean Burke should be a big help in their quest.  They have a relatively easy schedule, with 4 games left against the Ducks and one each with the Flames and Bruins.  Those are almost must-win games for the Kings though, as they might have trouble with their four tough games.  They could really help themselves with wins in their 3 games against other Western Conference playoff contenders.  With the race so tight, the Kings season could come down to the final two games, against the Penguins and the Oilers.

Phoenix Coyotes

Record: 29-33-5-5

Points: 68

Last 10 Games: 5-5-0

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 7 (Stars, Panthers, Capitals, @Sharks, Capitals, @Blues, @Sharks)

Easy Games: 4 (@Ducks, @Ducks, @Canadiens, Flyers)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 4 (@Oilers, Lightning, @Kings, Lightning)

Lately the Coyotes have traded away a couple of their high-priced stars and look to be getting in to re-building mode, but making the playoffs would be a bonus for them and with Dominik Hasek in net, anything is possible.  Their schedule is very hard though, especially for a team that no longer features Brendan Shanahan or Keith Primeau, so if they want to make the playoffs they should focus on winning their easy games and their games against other teams in the race, then hope to steal one or two games away from the tough teams that they face.  With two more talented squads, the Wild and the Predators, right behind them the Coyotes probably need at least 9 wins to have a chance at the playoffs and that will be very tough for them.

Minnesota Wild

Record: 31-32-4-1

Points: 67

Last 10 Games: 4-5-1

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 7 (@Panthers, Avalanche, @Leafs, @Leafs, @Senators, Avalanche, @Senators)

Easy Games: 4 (@Flames, Flames, Flames, Flames)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 4 (Kings, Canucks, Canucks, Devils)

Making the playoffs would be a great accomplishment for Sean Carnegie’s squad and in Ed Belfour they have a goalie who could lead them there single-handedly.  However, Belfour will need to put up a great showing in the teams’ last 15 games.  They need to, and should, beat the Flames all 4 times they play but the rest of their games will be tough to win.  If they can win 8 games total they probably have a good chance to leapfrog the Coyotes, but with a very talented Predators squad nipping at their heals, they probably need to win 10 games to give them a really good chance at making it.  Beating the Kings would be huge for the Wild.

Nashville Predators

Record: 26-30-11-3

Points: 66

Last 10 Games: 3-5-2

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 5(Blues, @Senators, Stars, Blackhawks, Sharks)

Easy Games: 8 (@Hurricanes, Bruins, @Hurricanes, Flames, @Jackets, Ducks, @Thrashers, @Jackets)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 2 (@Oilers, Canucks)

Nashville has acquired quite a bit of talent lately, but they need to find some chemistry soon or they risk a rocky road this off-season with no playoff cash.  With 8 games left against some of the WCFHL’s weakest squads, the Predators have an easier schedule then the teams above them, but they need to start taking care of business.  They have the talent to compete with the top teams in both leagues, so they should be able to win at least 2 or 3 of their remaining tough games.  That along with 5 or 6 victories in their easy games and wins over the Canucks and Oilers would probably be enough to get them in. 

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 28-34-5-1

Points: 62

Last 10 Games: 6-4-1

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 4 (Islanders, Stars, Avalanche, Blues)

Easy Games: 4 (@Thrashers, @Flames, Canadiens, @Flames)

Games VS. Playoff Race Teams: 7 (Lightning, Coyotes, Predators, @Canucks, @Canucks, @Canucks, @Kings)

Those playoff dollars would are much-needed in Edmonton, and 6-4 in their last 10 games is good, but they need to get hot right now.  The key for them will be the games against other Western Conference playoff race teams.  First off, they need to make sure they win at least 1 of the tough games and 2 or 3 of their easy games.  Wins against the Predators, Kings and Coyotes would really help their chances, and 3 wins against the Canucks would probably boot Vancouver from the playoff race.  If I were the Edmonton GM I’d look in to making a couple of trades to get help before the deadline (or scrap it and start selling assets), because they really need to get in to the post season.  It will be a very tough road as they probably need 10 or more wins to guarantee them a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Vancouver Canucks

Record: 23-31-13-1

Points: 60

Last 10 Games: 5-5-0

Games Remaining: 15

Tough Games: 5 (Avalanche, @Sharks, Avalanche, @Sabres, Blackhawks)

Easy Games: 3 (@Flames, Canadiens, Canadiens)

Games VS. Other Playoff Teams: 7 (@Wild, @Lightning, Oilers, Oilers, @Predators, @Wild, Oilers)

With 4 straight wins the Canucks have vaulted back in to the playoff race.  Their schedule may be the toughest of all the teams trying to get in to the playoffs though, especially considering they are 8 points out of the final spot.  For starters they need to make sure to take care of the Flame and Canadiens (twice) because that’s 6 easy points right there.  Their 3 games against the Oilers and 2 against the Wild are probably the most important games they have left.  Like the Oilers, they probably need 10+ wins to wrap up a spot, but they definitely have the talent to do it, especially with the ‘Bulin Wall in net.  If they are able to make the playoffs, they may have a chance for a 1^st round upset even.

Predictions

East: In this race I see the Devils winning a furious race for 8^th, probably by not more that a point or three.  They have more talent up front than either of the teams chasing them and though the Penguins have the experience, I just don’t think they have the talent at forward, while I don’t think the Lightning have the goaltending to get them enough wins to pass New Jersey.

West: I think the Kings will hold on to one of the final 2 spots with the Predators taking the other.  The acquisitions of Burke and Morris make the Kings very solid defensively, and I just think the Predators have too much talent not to push past the Wild and the Coyotes.  Tough the Wild have a lot of talent as well, I don’t think they have the forwards to lead them in to the playoffs.  The Coyotes have decided to re-build, the Canucks started their playoff push a little too late and the Oilers just don’t have a good enough defense (yet, anyway).